Jul

More on the Blue Jays Interest in Josh Johnson

By aartp

Recently… And, by recently I mean today, an article was posted by Marlins Daily writer Tony Capobianco about the Toronto Blue Jays interest in Josh Johnson.

This is not surprising. As a Jays fan I’ve learned that GM Alex Anthopoulos is interested in every better than average player made available by any MLB team.

Just sort of expected that every time a player is mentioned as available Jays fans will hear how the Jays have contacted his team’s GM about him.

The article concludes by saying; “Toronto could be the ideal place for the Marlins to unload and even bring in a star third baseman. In a blockbuster trade, the Marlins can send Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson to Toronto for a bounty of prospects and young third baseman Brett Lawrie.”

Now, as Dave Gersham pointed out, the Marlins have every right to ask about Brett Lawrie. And, sure, they do. But, the article suggests that it is a real possibility to acquire Lawrie, and that’s where I come into play.

This is a point-counterpoint thing where I will go into why Marlins fans should not expect certain players and then give you some insight into the Blue Jays farm system for names you may actually hear.

First, why Brett Lawrie is unequivocally unavailable.

Brett Lawrie is, without question, the best young player on the Toronto Blue Jays. The team has Colby Rasmus and Travis Snider, two players constantly ranked in the Top 10 prospects when they came through the system (Rasmus in St.Louis, Travis in Toronto). Lawrie is better.

He is hitting a very consistent .280/.326/.415 this season, which though not overwhelming compared to Bryce Harper or Mike Trout is very, very good considering that when you look at it, Lawrie hasn’t had a hot streak all-season. He hasn’t had one month where he has destroyed the baseball and because of it his numbers are inflated. Hasn’t happened.

That is something that 22-year old ballplayers don’t often have. A true level of consistency.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
April	23	90	11	25	1	1	2	13	5	16	2	2	.278	.327	.378	.704
May	24	94	13	27	5	0	2	8	3	18	5	1	.287	.316	.404	.721
June	27	113	24	35	9	1	4	12	9	10	4	5	.310	.371	.513	.884
July	15	60	7	13	2	0	1	5	3	12	1	0	.217	.250	.300	.550

I grant you, July has been bad, but it also has seen 10-less games (part because of the All-Star break, part because it’s only the 24th).

Trading Brett at 22-years old is like expecting the Angels to trade Trout at 20. It would have to take an incredible, beyond belief kind of deal that the Marlins simply cannot offer with a 28-year old struggling pitcher.

Further, Alex Anthopoulos is obsessed with player control. Every move he makes comes with a player who will be under team control for multiple years after the deal. His goal is to bring in high ceiling talent and prospects and only once has he gone against that (the Happ trade last week), and even then he didn’t trade much prospect depth.

Brett Lawrie is under team control for six years… Josh Johnson becomes a Free Agent in less than two. That is a big discrepancy.

Beyond the stats, there is one more huge reason why he will never be traded this season for Hanley, Josh Johnson, or any number of prospects.

He’s Canadian.

It’s sort of a big deal when you’re dealing with a player who is, without question, the most popular player in the organization (ahead of even Bautista, I would wager). His 100% Red Bull infused effort, Canadian heritage, and passion for the game have made Lawrie a fan-favourite that Alex Anthopoulos would be crazy to trade.

My favourite quote from a reader comes from Brandon E.M Savage; “Lawrie isn’t moved, unless the deal involves every single player in the Marlins system, including recently acquired Brett Lawrie.”

So, who could the Jays trade if they were to trade for Johnson?

Well, we’re not entirely sure here in Blue Jays land, but here are 10 players I expect to be named in any deal.

MLB-Level Talent
Yunel Escobar – SS
Kelly Johnson – 2B

Prospects
Moises Sierra – OF
Deck McGuire – P
Adonys Cardona – P
Roberto Osuna – P
Sam Dyson – P
Jake Marisnick – OF
Matt Dean – 3B

Possible Add-Ons
Aaron Laffey
Brett Cecil

There are a few more fringe starters, and I’m sure that if Miami pushed Anthopoulos they could get another MLB arm, likely a reliever like Darren Oliver, but as far as I can see, this is the roster from which Toronto will deal from (not including any prospects lower than their top 50).

And, all this hinges on just how much AA wants Johnson and whether or not the Marlins want to give up more (bullpen arm, likely) to get more.

If I were the Marlins GM and I wanted to make a deal with Anthopoulos and the Jays this is the trade I would try and make.

To the Blue Jays
SP – Josh Johnson
RP – Edward Mujica

To the Marlins
SS – Yunel Escobar
SP – Deck McGuire
RP – Sam Dyson
OF – Jake Marisnick
2 more Prospects in the 100-125 range
PTBNL

Now, after watching AA for the last three years I believe in a full rebuild, and that is what I think the Marlins should do. This is what I would do. It has some holes, and I know the idea of Johnson and Mujica seems big, but here is what the Marlins get in return.

Yunel Escobar easily fills the void at 2B or 3B made by the traded Infante and HanRam. A top level SS with a fairly good bat (though in an off-year). He’s about HanRam’s age, far better defensively, and makes far, far less money.

Deck McGuire is likely a fringe MLB arm next season and definitely an MLB arm in 2014. He’s 23-years old and expected to be a #3 or 4 in the bigs and will fit well behind Turner and Hernandez in the Marlins future rotation.

Sam Dyson is said to have top-level ‘stuff’ in the Jays system, could easily replace any reliever the Marlins trade away, is only 24-years old, and has seen some MLB action this season. He could, and likely will be, MLB ready next season.

Jake Marisnick is the jewel in this trade for the Marlins. A top, high ceiling OF prospect that can fill a future OF with Yelich and Morrison. He is a few years away, but by adding Mujica the Marlins could steal this kid from the Jays (there is a reason I added him. Without, the Marlins don’t sniff Marisnick and probably not Dyson).

The Marlins farm is awful, this adds depth with some high ceiling prospects and near-MLB ready ones at that…

There you are, Marlins fans. What’cha think?

Categories : Uncategorized

http://twitter.com/T_B_Jays Rohan C

That’s not unreasonable as a return, but if the front office is looking to add MLB ready prospects, you could possibly be talking about Adeiny Hechavarria and Anthony Gose. Gose has a higher talent level then Marisnick and is rather redundant in the outfield with Rasmus in center.

Mike Hannah

I agree, but the way I was thinking is that with how baron the Miami farm is they should maybe sacrifice getting a top 5 prospect in order to get 2 or 3 top 25 prospects in the Jays system, add some depth. The Marlins could get Gose, but the deal would not involve Marisnick, Dyson, and a lesser SP prospect than McGuire.

Anonymous

Hmm….the running out of continued pie in the sky overpays continues. You really think the jays would shift a 3WAR SS making $15million (total) over the next three years, + a top 50 OF prospect, +two C+ grade SPs +2 more 100-125 prospects + PTBNL for 1.5 years of an overpaid (relatively), injury prone NL pitcher + Mujica. Fat chance.

You’d maybe get Yunel + a SP prospect,
or maybe Marisnick + a SP prospect +PTBNL

The idea you’d get all that in one deal is quite frankly mind blowing.

Masonoakley42

Overpaid? No.
Injury prone? Yes.
I think you forgot to mention how he’s a true number 1 pitcher/ace when healthy, though.

Anonymous

Overpaid arguably, due to his injury proness, though that’s very debateable i’ll admit. When healthy, he is worth his contract, and generally worth about $12million surplus a year ($5million per WAR, $25million total value per year for a 5 WAR player, contract is worth $13.75m the remaining year plus what’s left of this year at about $5m), so at max his contract is worth about $15million over the remaining 1.5 seasons in value to a team. Any missed time will eat into that value, and would be hedged for given his injury history, so your likely looking at a package worth about $12 million in prospects and parts.

To put that in perspective, Yunel is on pace as a 3WAR player this year (in what is considered a down year), and has cleared 4WAR in six of eight years. He makes $5million a year, over the next three years, and about $2million the remains of this season, so 3.4ish years, $17million. Your going to get at worst 10 WAR during that period (if he has all down years), or $50 million in value. Your thus looking at a contract with probably $33million in surplus value over it’s duration remaining. If you believe the garbage ESPN has been spouting about him being out of favour, slash that value in half if you like, that’s still more value in his contract compared to what is left on Johnson’s.

If the Jays were a team in contention, sure they might overpay with Escobar and a C+ prospect to get Johnson’s remaining time, maybe they do consider themselves in contention and do this. To suggest a package like Michael did, of Escobar + six prospects is utter delusion though.

Masonoakley42

Good points about Yunel. Although I wonder if the Marlins would rather take more prospects with high upside, or take Yunel plus a few C+ or such.

Mike Hannah

Considering what we saw last week when the Jays traded 3 of their top 20 prospects to get an average lefty starter, an average bullpen arm, and an old Triple-A player, it isn’t completely unreasonable to think they might also do something like this.

Yunel, a lot like Hanley, is very hot and cold. Both in terms of their attitude and their performance this season. With Hechavarria waiting in the wings, the Jays could easily move Yubar.

Marisnick is behind Rasmus, Gose, Snider, and Bautista right now (not to mention Davis and Thames who have MLB experience). With Sierra, Anderson, and DJ Davis also coming through the system, the Jays could trade Marisnick. Also, Marisnick is batting .233 in Double-A. Not that it really matters, but it doesn’t put him over anyone else.

Dyson is covered by Mujica, and McGuire is struggling in the Minors and, while a very good prospect, is behind Norris, Syndergaard, Nicolino, Sanchez, Hutchison, and Alvarez in the young player/prospect hierarchy.

Josh Johnson is injury prone, yes, but he is also a #1 starter. The Jays don’t have a #1 with Morrow hurt and Romero sucking. Put all three of them, healthy, and hopefully reinvigorated in a rotation next season with Alvarez and Laffey/V/Happ or whoever else, and the Jays will have something.

And Mujica is a fairly good reliever, though I’d prefer Cishek… Or, both.

Anonymous

May I make some counter arguements, bear with me. I’ll use John Sickels list when referencing prospect rankings, but I can look up other lists if you like.

-For Lyon, Happ, Carpenter, the Jays moved

Cordero-contract dump, given likely at increased prospect cost, to save money
Francisco-ditto
Wojiechowski-preseason #11 (B- prospect) stalled at A+ ball this season while repeating the level, low Ks, high hits still, and this while in the most pitcher friendly minor league, likely a C+ prospect at time of trade.
Musgrove-preseason #15 (B- prospect) bad reviews out of extended spring, shoulder injury concerns and loss of velocity, likely a C+ prospect at time of trade
Perez-preseason #20 (C+ prospect) solid progress but repeating A-ball, needed to be added to 40-man at season end to avoid rule-5 draft elligibility (jays are short of 40-man space). Likely still a C+ prospect.
Rollins-preseason unlisted, a C prospect, has been solid at A-ball this year

That’s three C+ prospects with a lot of issues + a C prospect for three relief pitchers and the dumping of two unwanted players.

-Yes Hechavarria is in the wings, we also however have no 2B for next season, have no high minors 2B prospects, and have Hechavarria taking reps at 2B. He is not blocked by Yunel at this time.

-Marisnick, yes is blocked potentially at this time, but has only just reached AA and is not an issue until at least late 2013 (quoting a .233 AA average is disinqenuous btw based on a small 19 game sample, you’re being unfair to your readers by throwing that up, he’s more than held his own at A+ FSL level in a pitcher friendly environment for most of this season in a far greater sample). At this point he is a top-50 prospect in baseball (B+ prospect) the Jays have no need to trade at this time.

-I have no issue with you throwing in the likes of Dyson and McGuire, they are tradeable assets at this time of fungible value to the Jays, I have no issue with their inclusion in general, just as additions on top of what you had already put in the trade mix.

-Yes Johnson would be arguably a #1 with the Jays (though close with Morrow healthy by August and back in the mix), he’d be a significant upgrade for next year, but only at fair value

Masonoakley42

Good points. Although I don’t think Hechavarria really has significant value in a trade like this, since his upside is more limited than say Marisnick
Mike Hannah

Sorry it took me a day or so to get back to this but I did want to discuss your points as I felt your post was very well reasoned and thought out.

The Happ/Cordero+Prospects Trade

I’m not entirely sure I agree that the two pitchers dropped so from B- to C+ but what did happen was that the Jays had a really strong draft class that likely pushed them down to the bottom of the Top 20 and Perez out, all together.

The point I was making though was that shipping out prospects is no longer unprecedented in the AA administration.
—————————————–
As for Adeiny Hechavarria, the word is that he’s being considered for the MLB next season as a 2B, though I wonder if AA has given up on KJ who he long sought, but with the glove he is reported to have at SS it’s hard for me to believe they really want to move him

Also, Yunel it seems is sort of wearing out his welcome in TO. He’s a very good SS, when he wants to be, but his attitude, struggles this season, and giant mental lapses have likely soured the organization on him a bit.

I could see AA bringing back KJ who, despite his struggles in June-July, had a very solid April-May, is coming around recently, and also has one of the team’s highest OBP’s.

Also, I expect Miami to ask for top prospects (Profar is being mentioned) and AA may be able to convince them on lesser prospects (no Gose, Hech, or big 3 Lansing SP’s) in a deal that has Yunel and his team-friendly contract.
—————————————–
Yes, I’m aware that quoting a AA bating average after just 16 games is a bit disingenuous. My point was not to make him seem like a failed prospect or bad in any way, but to illustrate the point I was making which was that he is behind a lot of other players (prospects and vets) and nothing he’s done thus far has prove he should be put over them.

Also, I believe the Jays have a lot of OF prospects and current OF’s that pretty much block Marisnick completely. I mean, Rasmus is 25 and will be in the Jays organization for years to come, Snider is 24 and the same can be said for him, which leaves us with one spot, RF, which you have to believe that Gose has the inside track for in… 2-ish season’s when Bautista will be old enough to facilitate an everyday DH spot.

He’s one of those big potential FA’s that Miami might look for that the Jays could easily do without. Having him in the system is, as of now, a luxury. He has no real future with the team over the next 4 seasons as far as I can see, and the team can draft dozens of OF’s to play LF (his likeliest position, imo) by the time they need to replace Snider.
—————————————–
Ultimately, it MAY be giving up a bit much, but it’s nothing the Jays can’t afford in the long-run. My only mistake, in my opinion, is not saying Yunel and Marisnick -OR- Yunel or Marisnick + other prospects.

Thinking about it, I’m not 100% sure AA would give up both Yunel AND Marisnick + prospects for just JJ. The reason I wrote it was that originally, my article was about Hanley AND JJ, but Hanley was traded as I wrote it and my mentality didn’t shift.

Anonymous

Some decent reasoning, but i’d argue your reading a little much into a few things (though i’m not 100% given your original Hanley/Johnson mindset). There was I believe no question AA was willing to trade prospects for longterm upgrades, he’s come out and said so repeatedly this year in fact. I merely felt you were reading a little much into the Astros trade in terms of what was let go, whereby while we traded quantity, we didn’t let go anything above a 3rd tier prospect, while dumping contracts. Your original suggestion had both quality (something we will also trade, but in moderation) as well as quantity, and threw up red flags accordingly.

Regarding Escobar’s supposed personality conflict, there has only been talk of this in the US press (ESPN primarily, and then others quoting them). All evidence available would indicate that Escobar is a popular member of the Jays clubhouse, he gets on very well with Encarnacion and Bautista, and is on good terms with our GM and the backroom staff. He puts in a lot of work off the field, gets rave reviews for his work ethic between games and is generally seen as a friendly (if airheaded and error prone) guy by all in Toronto. The only negative reports we have seen during his tenure have been from US sources, pushing the whole lazy latino sterotype he was tarred with in Atlanta, not a peep out of the Canadian press that hasn’t been quoting US press. Given the Jays large online presence, a lot of Toronto fans have pretty much written this whole thing off as another made up story to garner page views (much like last years Man in White hatchet piece, and over gutter reporting of past years).

In terms of KJ, most fans would be happy to see us keep him, we just expect him to try FA and inevitably to go elsewhere.

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