Rest-of-season ZiPS projections for Marlins hittersBy
With 82 games down, it’s time to see how Marlins hitters are expected to fare in the second half of the season, according to the ZiPS projections system. ZiPS was created by Dan Szymborski of Baseball Think Factory and ESPN, and it’s one of the most accurate projection systems available.
Now the newest member of the Marlins, Lee performed only marginally above replacement level in Houston, worth 0.2 fWAR while hitting .287/.336/.411. Unfortunately, ZiPS predicts a very similar line of .278/.327/.433 the rest of the way for Lee. Still, any offense at all from first base will be a welcome addition, as Gaby Sanchez and Logan Morrison combined could manage just a .236/.292./.359 while playing the position. While most of his peripherals are expected to stay about the same, ZiPS does expect Lee to hit for more raw power the second half of the season, (.156 ISO vs .124) something the Marlins desperately need.
Infante has been one of the few bright spots for the Marlins, hitting .287/.312/.452 along with 7 home runs. However, ZiPS predicts Infante to cool down slightly in the second half for a .283/.322/.401 slash line. After walking only 3.4% of the time through June, ZiPS expects Infante to increase his BB% to 5.3%, a rate much closer to his career average. Infante should also expect to see a drop in power numbers, as ZiPS predicts his ISO of .165 to regress towards his career average of .122.
Reyes has been decent but not spectacular in 2012, hitting .268/.341/.388, which comes out to almost exactly league average (99 wRC+). ZiPS expects Reyes to pick it up in the second half, specifically his batting average and slugging, to the tune of .290/.348/.435. Without the shortstop contributing significantly to the offense, it will be tough for the Marlins to stay in contention in the competitive NL East.
Hanley is another Marlin who ZiPS expects improvement from in the second half of 2012. He’s hit .259/.334/.443 so far, good for a .339 wOBA and worth 1.9 fWAR. Hanley’s expected line of .274/.354/.447 the rest of the way is not drastically different than his slash line from the first half, but even a small uptick would go a long way towards the Marlins playoff hopes.
Posting just a .4 fWAR at the midpoint of the season, 2012 has not been Logan Morrison‘s year. He’s managed just a .242/.317/.433 slash line up to this point, although, ZiPS expects the second half to be much more friendly to Morrison. It projects a .252/.348/.451 line the rest of the way–mostly because Morrison should see more balls in play fall for hits. His BABIP of .253 has been quite unlucky, and ZiPS expects a more luck-neutral .283 BABIP for the last half of the season. Morrison could also benefit from a higher BB%, as ZiPS projects his walk rate to increase from 9.6% to 12.1%.
Stanton has been, by far, the Marlins best player this season, and the second half will most likely be no different. He’s been worth 3.0 fWAR by hitting .283/.364/.555, and ZiPS projects him to essentially match his first half with a .272/.363/.555 line. ZiPS also projects his career-low K% of 24.8% to regress back towards his career strikeout rate of 28%, although it wouldn’t be surprising to see Stanton continue limiting his K’s.
Ruggiano has been one of the hottest players in the majors since being traded to the Marlins, hitting an incredible .409/.487/.818. At some point, Ruggiano won’t be able to keep up the staggering pace, and ZiPS projects him to hit .263/.320/.431 the rest of the way. So far, Ruggiano has benefitted from an astronomical .449 BABIP, but ZiPS expects a .330 average on balls in play for Ruggiano going forward. ZiPS also believes Ruggiano won’t be able to match the BB% and K% that he’s posted so far–it projects his strikeout rate to raise from 16.3% to about 25%, and his walk rate to drop from 13.8% to 7.4%.
Before his injury and subsequent trip to the DL, Bonifacio was hitting .268/.351/.315 over 39 games, worth 0.3 fWAR. Although he won’t return until after the All-Star break, ZiPS still projects Bonifacio to be worth 0.5 fWAR in the second half of the season, and expects him to hit at a clip of .263/.331/.336.
Buck has hit an abysmal .180/.304/.335 (AVG/OBP/SLG) so far, but ZiPS sees some improvement the rest of the way for Buck–although it would be difficult to hit much worse than he has up to this point. ZiPS projects a .222/.309/.371 line from the catcher, for a total of 0.9 fWAR. The changes in On-base percentage and Slugging are rather small, but the system does expect a 42 point jump in batting average.
Data from Fangraphs