Perspective – Or, the Reason “On Pace” is Meaningless in May :: Marlins Daily – A Miami Marlins Blog
May
23

Perspective – Or, the Reason “On Pace” is Meaningless in May

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Almost immediately after my first two blog posts had been submitted (the Infante blog was submitted on the 13th and posted on the 15th) I found myself having a hard time deciding what to write about next.

The Marlins are in no way short of interesting stories and angles, the same as any professional sports franchise, but as an out-of-city follower it’s not as easy to keep my finger on the pulse of the team and its fans.

And, so I did the only thing I could think of doing; I texted my best friend. I began explaining how difficult it was to write about for a team that I can’t always see play and asked her for advice. She responded asking only which team it was that I am writing about.

The resulting conversation went like this.

Me: “Miami Marlins”
Her: “LOMO!!”

That was all the prompting I needed to begin writing about a 24-year old prospect who was then hitting .284 with a .369 OBP and a .391 slugging percentage. Similar to the Infante article I was jumping on the ‘this guy is awesome!’ bandwagon.

Logan Morrison #5 in a game against the Houston Astros (14/05) - Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Image

That was ten days ago.

Since, I’ve watched as have all of you as LoMo went 3 of his next 25 and saw his average drop 34 points, his OBP drop 23 points, and his slugging percentage plummet nearly 40 points and I began to re-remember the most important thing for any baseball fan to remember.

And, to quote myself from 11-days ago; “the MLB season is a marathon and not a sprint”

Perspective, as it turns out, can be an interesting thing.

How soon I forget.

There is a reason why “on pace” is practically meaningless in the first two months of the season. Morrison was “on pace” for 11 HR’s ten days ago, now he’s on pace for eight, and if he hits one tonight he’d be on pace for 12. In fact, if he were to completely go off and hit two homeruns tonight he’d then be “on pace” for 16.

At only 38 games and 113 AB’s one game, good or bad, can completely change a players’ “on pace” and paying too much attention to those numbers in May could drive a writer or a fan mad.

Which has become the point of my new post; a simple reminder to the fans, and me, as it turns out, to keep everything that happens in the opening months of the major league season in perspective.

It wasn’t long ago that people were reading a lot into an 8-14 start of the season with so many concerns about player performance including Heath Bell, Jose Reyes, and Hanley Ramirez.  22 days later and the team is now on a 15-5 run during the month of May, just 2.5 games back of the division leading Atlanta Braves while also sitting in the second Wildcard spot.

And, that lead will change, too. It will likely grow or fail to hold over the next four and a quarter months, and that’s okay. Like my failed ten-day old article about the greatness of Logan Morrison the standings too will continue to change over the weeks and months of the season and nothing is ever as good or as bad as it seems in May.

Except Omar Infante. He’ll still be a boss.

Categories : Analysis
  • http://twitter.com/JRodriguezCP Julio Rodriguez

    I guess you saved this post with some decent logic and clever wrap up at the end, but starting the post by saying that you aren’t really qualified to write for the team in the first place is probably a mistake.

    If you really want to dive into a subject, find out why Mujica is the set up man while the much more reliable Cishek is relegated to the seventh inning.

    I’d also like to hear why Buck gets the majority of the starts over Hayes, even though Guillen, according to Rich and Tommy, “always rewards his hot players with playing time.” Is it because his defense is THAT much better behind the plate? Or is it simply because the starting rotation prefers him to call the games?

    • Ftn_Ben1

      Truthfully, I think Guillen just doesnt want to seem brash and move people out of thier spots. Bell is killing me but I believe that he will come around. Today was a nice start with a 1-2-3 9th against the First place nats but it was against the 7-8-9 slot when we were up by two with another half inning to correct any mistakes. Hardly putting Bell on the hook but I wont complain, just watch with the fear that he’ll screw up a game that matters. Or maybe its like the blog says, nothing in the first few months matter. I just want a little bit of respect from any sports network other than Fox Florida.

    • Drew2347

      The only reason i can see that buck gets the majority of playing time is money money money. No one wants to sit a guy making 7.5 mil most of the time. Just like bell, hes getting paid 9 million to close games so ozzie gonna use him as his closer

  • Mike Hannah

    Qualified is also a matter of perspective. Thus far my posts have been about a trend in the game (“A Closer, A Closer”), a veteran player I have seen a fair bit of (“Omar Infante”), or baseball fans on mass (“Perspective”). I’ve been very careful not to write as a fan but as an observer. I am a fan of the game and I feel that my posts have been reflective of that.

    I will be getting a sports package from my cable provider next week so I’ll be able to watch nearly all the games, even on the nights I’m working. So, that’ll help a lot.

    I do thank you for some story ideas and I will look into those topics. It’s always good to be handed ideas when you’re feeling stuck. And I always appreciate comments.